Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 August 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Aug 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1271 (N15E62) produced
a C1 flare at 16/0025Z. New Region 1272 (S19E67) was numbered today
and produced a B6 flare at 16/1110Z. Another flux region emerged in
the southeast quadrant of the visible solar disk near S17E14 and is
being monitored for growth. All regions were magnetically simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. C-class events are likely from both Region 1271 and
1272 with a remote chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled under the continued
influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Wind speed at the
ACE spacecraft was generally about 450 km/s, rising to approximately
600 km/s between 16/03Z to 16/10Z. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field ranged from near +5 to -7 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on Day 1 (17 August), returning to
mostly quiet conditions on Days 2 and 3 (18-19 August) as the
coronal hole high speed stream effects diminish.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Aug 093 Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 16 Aug 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 009/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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