Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 August 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Aug 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. The largest X-ray
enhancement of the past 24 hours reached B9 level around 14/1030Z
originating from an area near the northeast limb. There are
currently no spotted regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (15-17 August). There is a chance for a
C-class X-ray event throughout the period with the new region on the
northeast limb being the most likely source of activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Observations of the
solar wind from the ACE spacecraft indicated elevated speeds
reaching up to 500 km/s, consistent with a high speed stream from a
favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet to unsettled with a chance for active
periods due to the coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Aug 088 Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 14 Aug 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 010/010-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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