Viewing archive of Sunday, 31 July 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Region 1261 (N16E05) produced a C3/SN at 31/0254Z. This region has
grown in area and magnetic complexity, and classified as a
Beta-Gamma-Delta type spot group. Region 1260 (N19W22) and Region
1263 (N18E34) remained relatively unchanged.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominately low, with a chance for an M-class x-ray event from
Region 1260 and Region 1261 for the next three days (August 01-03).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. Data observed at the ACE spacecraft indicated the
continuation of a coronal hole high speed stream, with wind
velocities reaching 690 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods on day one (August 01) due to the effects from the coronal
hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected
on days two and three (02-03 August) as the effects of the coronal
hole high speed stream wane.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jul 119 Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 31 Jul 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 010/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 009/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 012/012-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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