Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 July 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
New Regions 1254 (S22E59) and 1255 (N17E45) were numbered overnight
and are classified as Cro-beta and Axx-alpha type groups
respectively. Region 1254 produced a few B-class flares but all
other regions on the disk have been quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with isolated C-class activity likely for the next three days
(15-17 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours
due to residual effects from the CH HSS. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated
active periods on day one (15 July) as effects from the CH HSS
subside. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for days two and three
(16-17 July).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 094 Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 094/094/094 90 Day Mean 14 Jul 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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