Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 July 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. There have been two
B-class flares observed in the past 24 hours. Region 1243 (N16E08)
produced a B2 event at 01/2111Z, and Region 1242 (N18W57) produced a
B1 event at 1121Z. Region 1243 showed growth in the leader spot,
but the trailer spots decayed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. ACE solar wind data indicated
speeds between 360 - 430 km/s, consistent with a weak high speed
stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for an isolated
active period on days 1 and 2 (3 - 4 July). Day 3 (5 July) is
expected to be quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jul to 05 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jul 086 Predicted 03 Jul-05 Jul 086/086/086 90 Day Mean 02 Jul 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul 007/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul 007/010-007/010-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul to 05 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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