Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 June 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There were four B-class
flares in the past 24 hours. Region 1242 (N17W17) produced a B5/Sf
event at 0953Z and a B2 event at 1705Z. Region 1240 (S18W81) was
unchanged but produced a B7 event at 0032Z and a B2 event at 1952Z.
Region 1242 and Region 1243 (N16E50) appeared to be slowly growing
but were small and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (30 June), and quiet to unsettled on
days 2 and 3 (1 - 2 July). The increase in activity is forecast due
to recurrence of a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jun 087 Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 087/087/087 90 Day Mean 29 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 005/005-007/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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