Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 June 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There were three B class
flares in the past 24 hours. Region 1240 (S18E02) produced a B2 at
0213Z and appeared to be slowly growing. Region 1236 (N16W46) was
unchanged but produced a B5 at 1240Z and a B4 at 1407Z. Region 1239
(N16W27) was slowly decaying.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active for the past 24
hours. ACE solar wind data showed elevated velocities around 600 to
700 km/s consistent with a high speed stream from a favorably
positioned coronal hole. A sudden impulse was observed at 0258Z and
measured 22 nT at the Boulder magnetometer. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active with a chance for minor storm periods at
mid-latitudes and isolated major storm periods at high latitudes for
tomorrow (24 June). This activity is expected as a response to the
arrival of the halo CME observed on 21 June. Conditions are
expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels for the second
day (25 June), and quiet to unsettled levels for the third day (26
June).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jun 096 Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 095/095/090 90 Day Mean 23 Jun 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 007/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 018/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 025/030-012/018-007/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 15% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 10% | 01% |
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