Viewing archive of Monday, 20 June 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1234 (S16W87)
produced two B-class flares as it approached the west limb. Region
1236 (N17W07) showed little change during the period and remained an
Esi group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration (due to mixed
polarities in the leader portion of the group). New Regions 1239
(N18E13) and 1240 (S17E42) were numbered. Both were small,
magnetically simple spot groups.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low through the period (21 - 23 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (21 June) due
to weak coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Activity is
expected to decrease to quiet levels on day 2 (22 June). An increase
to quiet to unsettled levels is expected for day 3 (23 June) with a
chance for active levels as another CH HSS begins to disturb the
field.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jun 096 Predicted 21 Jun-23 Jun 095/095/100 90 Day Mean 20 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 007/008-005/005-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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