Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 June 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1236 (N17E58) produced a C7/1n flare at 16/1022Z with weak radio emissions in the 2695MHz to 15.4 GHz range, including a 130 sfu 10cm burst. The region showed little change over the past 24 hours. Region 1234 (S16W29) produced low-level B-class activity during the period. The region showed modest growth in spot count. Two low-level C-class x-ray events were observed from a region behind the east limb near S17. These events most likely originated from old Region 1223 (S17, L=130). A 10 degree eruptive filament, centered near S23W35, was observed lifting off just SW of Region 1234. Filament movement was first observed on SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 16/1426Z with a subsequent narrow CME off the SW limb, first observed in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 16/1612Z. Initial plane-of-sky velocity was estimated at 190 km/s. This slow CME does not appear to be Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class events all three days of the period (17 - 19 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind velocities were steady at about 450 km/s through 16/1500Z when a slight increase to about 480 km/s was observed. Coupled with the wind increase were slight rises in temperature and density, along with a general increase in low energy particles.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods on day one and two (17 - 18 June). The forecasted increase in activity is in response to possible effects of a glancing blow from the CME observed early on 14 June. By day three (19 June), field conditions are expected to return to mostly quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jun 103
  Predicted   17 Jun-19 Jun  105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        16 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jun  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun  008/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm10%10%01%
Major-severe storm10%10%01%

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