Viewing archive of Monday, 6 June 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1226 (S22W52)
produced a few low-level C-class events. During the past 24 hours,
Region 1227 (S21W35) decayed from a D-type to an H-type spot group.
Region 1232 (N08E07) developed trailer spots to become a C-type from
an H-type spot group. A 12 degree long filament, centered near
N25W34, erupted during the period. SDO/AIA 193 imagery revealed
material movement along a large filament channel, first visible at
06/0441Z, which continued through about 06/0900Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class event all three days (07 - 09
June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much
beyond +/- 4 nT. Solar wind velocities, as measured at the ACE
spacecraft, steadily declined through period from about 500 km/s to
near 420 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit remained enhanced through the period, reaching a maximum of
4.8 pfu at 06/0405Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels for the next three days
(07 - 09 June).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jun to 09 Jun
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jun 100 Predicted 07 Jun-09 Jun 098/096/095 90 Day Mean 06 Jun 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun 020/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun to 09 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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