Viewing archive of Friday, 3 June 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1226 (S22W14) produced
a C2/Sf flare at 03/1617Z. This region is a Dkc group with a beta
magnetic classification. All other numbered regions on the disk
remained stable through the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to low with
a slight chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with isolated minor storm conditions,
and isolated major storm levels at high latitudes, for day one (04
June). Activity is expected due to the combination of effects from
a coronal hole high-speed stream and a CME observed on 02 June.
Quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active conditions are
expected for day two (05 June). Day three (06 June) is expected to
be quiet to unsettled as activity effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jun 107 Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 106/104/102 90 Day Mean 03 Jun 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 020/025-015/018-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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