Viewing archive of Monday, 23 May 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 May 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The three spotted regions
on the disk are small and magnetically simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low for the next three days (23 - 25 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on Days 1 and 2 (23-24 May), becoming quiet to
unsettled with the approach of a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream on Day 3 (25 May).
III. Event Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 May 084 Predicted 24 May-26 May 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 23 May 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 May 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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