Viewing archive of Monday, 9 May 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 May 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Newly-numbered
Region 1210 (N20E08) produced occasional B-class flares and isolated
low-level C-class flares. Region 1210 was classified as a Dsi group
with a beta magnetic configuration. A C5 flare occurred at 09/2059Z,
associated with an event from beyond the northeast limb. New Region
1211 (S12W23) was numbered. It was classified as a Bxo group with a
simple beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (10 - 12 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (10 May)
as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) begins to
disturb the field. Quiet to active levels are expected during days 2
- 3 (11 - 12 May) as the CH HSS persists.
III. Event Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 May 104 Predicted 10 May-12 May 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 09 May 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 000/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 008/008-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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