Viewing archive of Friday, 22 April 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Apr 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1195 (S18E28)
produced two M-class flares: an M1/Sn at 0457Z and an M1/1n at
1553Z. There was not any indication of a CME associated with either
of these events. Region 1195 dominated the activity during the past
24 hours and produced numerous additional C-class x-ray events. The
group showed steady growth throughout the period and is currently
estimated to have 370 millionths sunspot area. The group also shows
some magnetic complexity (Beta-Gamma); particularly interesting is
an east-west section of the inversion line in the center of the
group which has a favorable configuration for building shear. Region
1193 (N17W45) is gradually decaying and did not produce any flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next three days. Additional M-class flares are
likely from Region 1195, especially if it continues to grow.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was generally quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (23-25 April).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Apr 115 Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 22 Apr 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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