Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 April 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Apr 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels during the past 24
hours. Occasional C-class flares occurred. The largest was a C4/Sf
flare at 14/0527Z from Region 1193 (N16E58). The majority of the
flares were observed from Region 1193 and Region 1190 (N13W14).
Region 1190 increased in area and complexity and is classified as an
Eki-beta group with 37 spots. Region 1193 showed a slight increase
in areal coverage. Region 1186 (N22W33) showed an increase in areal
coverage as well as spot count. Region 1194 (S32W42) was numbered
today as a Bxo-beta group with 2 spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next
three days (15-17 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next three days
(15-17 April).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Apr 119 Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 125/128/130 90 Day Mean 14 Apr 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 010/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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