Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 April 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Apr 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels during the past 24 hours. Occasional C-class flares occurred. The largest was a C4/Sf flare at 14/0527Z from Region 1193 (N16E58). The majority of the flares were observed from Region 1193 and Region 1190 (N13W14). Region 1190 increased in area and complexity and is classified as an Eki-beta group with 37 spots. Region 1193 showed a slight increase in areal coverage. Region 1186 (N22W33) showed an increase in areal coverage as well as spot count. Region 1194 (S32W42) was numbered today as a Bxo-beta group with 2 spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next three days (15-17 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next three days (15-17 April).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Apr 119
  Predicted    15 Apr-17 Apr  125/128/130
  90 Day Mean        14 Apr 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr  010/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Apr  004/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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