Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 April 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Apr 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1190 (N15E12) produced
three C-class flares during the period. The largest was a C3 event
at 12/0607Z. Region 1190 increased in area from 40 millionths to
approximately 70 millionths. New Regions 1191 (N09E73) and 1192
(N10E03) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
C-class flares are likely for the next three days (13 - 15 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Two periods
of K=5 were observed at high latitudes during the period. The
increase was in response to a coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar
wind speeds measured at the ACE Spacecraft increased from
approximately 550 km/s to approximately 650 km/s during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (13 -
15 April) as the coronal hole high-speed stream effects decrease.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Apr to 15 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Apr 110 Predicted 13 Apr-15 Apr 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 12 Apr 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr to 15 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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