Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 April 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Apr 06 2225 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. A C1 flare was
observed off the east limb at 06/1807Z. Region 1184 (N16W41) showed
an increase in area and spot number. New Region 1186 (N22E58) was
numbered as an Axx spot with two spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels, with an isolated
minor storm period observed at mid-latitudes and major storm levels
at high latitudes. The increase in activity is due to a CME
associated with a B8/Sf flare at 02/2347Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
levels at high latitudes, on day one (07 April). Activity is
expected to decrease to predominantly quiet levels on day two (08
April). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected, with isolated active levels on day three (09 April), due to expected coronal hole high-speed stream effects.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Apr 117 Predicted 07 Apr-09 Apr 117/117/117 90 Day Mean 06 Apr 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr 019/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 008/008-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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