Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 April 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Apr 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Only B-class flares were
observed. Region 1185 (N23E50) increased from 50 millionths to
approximately 100 millionths in the past 24 hours. Region 1183
(N14W54) decreased from 90 millionths to approximately 20 millionths
in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (06 - 08 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The Ace spacecraft
observed an IP shock at 05/1804Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days
(06 - 08 April) in response to the IP shock mentioned above and
coronal hole high speed effects.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 109 Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 05 Apr 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 005/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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