Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 February 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 057 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was low due to a single C1 x-ray event
from Region 1164 (N28E60) observed at 26/0813Z. The region continues
to rotate onto the disk and is currently classified as a D-type spot
group with a complicated beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region
1163 (N18E46) exhibited little change during the period producing
several moderate to high-level B-class events. New Region 1165
(S22E43) emerged on the disk as a simple bi-polar spot group and was
quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next three days (27 - 28 February and 01 March).
A chance for M-class activity exists all three days from both
Regions 1163 and 1164.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels for days one and two of
the forecast period (27 - 28 February). By day three (01 March),
geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
levels due to the onset of a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Feb 090 Predicted 27 Feb-01 Mar 092/092/092 90 Day Mean 26 Feb 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar 005/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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