Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 February 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate during the past 24
hours. New Region 1163 (N18E72) produced an M3 x-ray event at
24/0738Z associated with a 180 sfu Tenflare, a Type II radio sweep
(estimated velocity of 1283 km/s) and a Type IV radio sweep. This
region is still rotating onto the visible disk. Region 1161 (N11W87)
and Region 1162 (N17W89) have been quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days (25-27 February), with Region
1163 the most likely source for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet during the past 24 hours. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (25-27
February).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Feb 089 Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 090/088/088 90 Day Mean 24 Feb 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 001/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 007/007-007/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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