Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 January 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1147
(N24E09) produced two low-level B-class flares during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. An isolated unsettled
period was observed at Boulder between 20/0900 - 1200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (21 January). Quiet to unsettled
levels, with isolated active levels at high latitudes, are expected
on day two (22 January) due to a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH
HSS). Activity should decrease to quiet levels on day three (23
January) as the effects of the CH HSS wane.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jan 082 Predicted 21 Jan-23 Jan 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 20 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 005/005-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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