Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 December 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Dec 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. Spotless Region 1135 (N18E30)
produced a C5 x-ray flare at 15/0639Z. The only spotted group on
the visible solar disk is Region 1133 (N13W74). It is classified as
an H-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions.
Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated a continued influence
from a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speeds were
averaging just above 600 km/s at the start of the forecast period
and ended with speeds around 550 km/s at reporting time. The
interplanetary Bz ranged from -/+ 4nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
periods, for the next three days (16-18 December) due to the
continued effects of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Dec 087 Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 087/086/084 90 Day Mean 15 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 007/008-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 01% | 02% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 02% | 02% |
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