Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 November 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Nov 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. New Region 1128
(S16E59) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. Solar wind speed has remained
steady at approximately 450 km/s throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for days one and two (26-27 November). Day
three (28 November) is expected to be predominately quiet with a
slight chance for isolated unsettled periods. The increase in
activity is forecast due to the CME observed on 24 November becoming
geo-effective.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Nov 078 Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 078/079/080 90 Day Mean 25 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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