Viewing archive of Monday, 18 October 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1112 (S19W58)
was responsible for all the periods activity which included a long
duration C2.5 x-ray event at 18/1643Z. The region decayed slightly
in area and spot count, but maintained a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. Region 1113 (N18E10) had several point brightenings
observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at predominately very low to low levels all three days of the
forecast period (19 - 21 October), with a chance for M-class events
from Region 1112.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels all three days of the
forecast period (19 - 21 October), with isolated minor storm periods
possible on 19 October. A coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is
expected to rotate into a geoeffective position late on 18 October
or early on 19 October, followed by a second geoeffective CH HSS
expected to arrive early on 20 October. These features, coupled with
possible effects from the CME observed on 14 October, are the
reasons for the forecasted increase in geomagnetic activity.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Oct 091 Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 18 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 012/012-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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