Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 October 2010

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels due to a few C-class events from Region 1112 (S20W44), the largest a C1.7 x-ray event observed at 17/0859Z. The region continued to evolve over the past 24 hours, increasing in both area and extent, while maintaining Beta-Gamma magnetic characteristics. New Region 1116 (N22W14) was numbered as a simple bi-polar spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels all three days of the forecast period (18 - 20 October), with a chance for M-class events from evolving Region 1112.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels during the period. Activity was at quiet to unsettled levels until about 17/0700Z when the field became disturbed. Geomagnetic activity increased to active to minor storm levels through 17/0900Z, returning to mostly quiet levels through the remainder of the period. At about 17/0400Z, signatures at the ACE satellite indicated gradual increases in temperature, density and wind velocity. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) turned southward, and remained south for about 7 hours, reaching a maximum deflection of -7nT at 17/0737Z. The Bt component of the IMF reached a maximum of 10nT at 17/0520Z. This short-lived disturbance is thought to have been a result of a glancing blow from the slow-moving CME observed on 10 October.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels all three days of the forecast period (18 - 20 October). Isolated minor storm periods are possible on 19 October. A coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position late on 18 October, followed by a second geoeffective CH HSS likely to arrive early on 20 October. These features, coupled with possible effects from the CME observed on 14 October, expected to arrive on 19 October, are the reasons for the forecasted increase in geomagnetic activity.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Oct 084
  Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct  086/086/086
  90 Day Mean        17 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  003/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Oct  009/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  008/010-012/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%20%
Minor storm05%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%35%25%
Minor storm15%20%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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