Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 October 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. No flares
were detected. Region 1112 (S19E26) was quiet and stable. No new
regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (13 - 15 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field decreased to quiet to unsettled levels as it
recovered from yesterdays CME-driven disturbance. ACE solar wind
measurements indicated velocities were variable and ranged from 364
to 453 km/s. IMF Bz was weakly southward during most of the period
(maximum deflection -7 nT at 12/0037Z) while IMF Bt gradually
decreased from 7 nT to 5 nT as the period progressed.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period (13 - 15
October).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 075 Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 076/076/076 90 Day Mean 12 Oct 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 010/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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