Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 September 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 25 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1109 (N22E27) was
classified as an Ehi group with a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration
and produced a few B-class flares during the period. No new regions
were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. However, there is a slight chance for an M-class flare
from Region 1109.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels as a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream continued.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet during days one and two (26-27 September).
Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (28 September)
as a weak, recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream becomes
geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Sep 083 Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 083/083/082 90 Day Mean 25 Sep 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 009/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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