Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 September 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 14 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. The disk was quiet
and stable. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a chance for an isolated C-class event from Region 1106
(N19E30).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet on day one (15 September). Quiet
to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are expected on
day two (16 September) due to the arrival of the CME observed on
September 11. Day three is expected to be predominately unsettled
with isolated active periods, as a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 081 Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 082/083/083 90 Day Mean 14 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 005/002-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
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