Viewing archive of Monday, 13 September 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 13 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The disk was quiet and
stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels. A slight chance for C-class activity is
possible from Region 1106 (S19E44) for the next three days (14 - 16
September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for days one and two (14 - 15
September). Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated high
latitude active periods, are possible on day three (16 September)
due to the combined effects from the 11 September CME and a weak
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Sep 080 Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 080/080/081 90 Day Mean 13 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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