Viewing archive of Monday, 16 August 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Aug 16 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1099 (N17W84) produced
several B-class flares and also a C1 flare at 16/1639Z. New region
1100 (S24E59) was numbered today and is classified as a Axx-type
group with an alpha magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. An isolated unsettled period
was observed at 16/0600Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on
days one and two (17 - 18 August) in response to the CME observed on
14 August. Mostly quiet levels are expected on day three (19
August).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Aug 085 Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 16 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 010/015-010/012-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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