Viewing archive of Friday, 16 July 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jul 16 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1087 (N20W19) has
shown little change during the past 24 hours with only low-level
B-class activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 1087.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet with one isolated
period of unsettled conditions during the period. Solar wind
observations from the ACE spacecraft show a continued decline in
solar wind speeds with an average below 400 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (17-19 July).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 077 Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 076/075/075 90 Day Mean 16 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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