Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 May 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 25 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1072 (S15W36) produced an impulsive B6/Sf flare at 25/1551Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low, with a slight chance of a C-class event from Region 1072.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (26 May) and partway through day two (27 May). An increase to active levels is expected late on day two (27 May) and partway through day three (28 May) due to the arrival of the CME observed on 23 May. Predominately unsettled to active levels with a chance for isolated minor storm levels are expected later on day three (28 May) due to the arrival of the CME observed on 24 May.
III. Event Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 May 073
  Predicted   26 May-28 May  075/076/078
  90 Day Mean        25 May 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 May  000/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 May  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  005/002-010/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%35%50%
Minor storm01%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%40%50%
Minor storm01%15%25%
Major-severe storm01%10%15%

All times in UTC

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