Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 May 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 25 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1072 (S15W36)
produced an impulsive B6/Sf flare at 25/1551Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low, with a slight chance of a C-class event from Region 1072.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (26 May) and partway through day two
(27 May). An increase to active levels is expected late on day two
(27 May) and partway through day three (28 May) due to the arrival
of the CME observed on 23 May. Predominately unsettled to active
levels with a chance for isolated minor storm levels are expected
later on day three (28 May) due to the arrival of the CME observed
on 24 May.
III. Event Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 May 073 Predicted 26 May-28 May 075/076/078 90 Day Mean 25 May 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May 000/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May 005/002-010/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 35% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 40% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
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