Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Apr 21 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Apr 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the last 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low for the next three days (22-24 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the last 24 hours.
Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate that the Earth is
currently under the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream.
Solar winds increased from around 350 km/s to 425 km/s during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for
days one and two (22-23 April). The increase in activity is due to
possible CME effects and a continued influence of the coronal hole
high speed stream. Predominately quiet conditions are expected for
day three (24 April).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Apr to 24 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Apr 076 Predicted 22 Apr-24 Apr 076/078/078 90 Day Mean 21 Apr 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Apr 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Apr 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr 010/012-008/008-005/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Apr to 24 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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