Viewing archive of Friday, 16 April 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Apr 16 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the last 24 hours. The disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (17-19 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the last 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated
active periods at high latitudes for days one and two (17-18 April)
due to effects from the CME observed on 13 April. Quiet to
unsettled levels with isolated active periods at high latitudes are
expected for day three (19 April) due to a coronal hole wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Apr 075 Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 077/078/079 90 Day Mean 16 Apr 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 007/008-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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