Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 April 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Apr 11 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours. The solar disk was generally void of spots, although there was some evidence late in the period for emerging flux and possible new spot formation near S18E07.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (12-14 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was initially quiet but became unsettled at mid-latitudes and active with some isolated storm periods at high latitudes after a sudden impulse at 1305Z (5 nT in Boulder). The sudden impulse followed observation of a weak shock at the ACE spacecraft at 1215Z; velocity jumped from 380 km/s to about 450 km/s, and the total magnetic field increased from 4 nT to about 10 nT. The shock was followed by moderately enhanced southward field Bz with values ranging between -3 nT to -8 nT. The shock was most likely a result of the halo CME that was observed on 08 April. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet with some unsettled periods for the first day (12 April) as the current disturbance subsides. Activity is expected to be quiet for the second and third days (13-14 April).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Apr 075
  Predicted   12 Apr-14 Apr  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        11 Apr 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Apr  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr  007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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