Viewing archive of Wednesday, 7 April 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Apr 07 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Regions 1060 (N24E14) and 1061 (N13W39) remain stable and show slight decay. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm conditions, with periods of major storming at some high latitude stations. This activity is a continuation of the CME-driven conditions from 05 April. The ACE spacecraft currently indicates the presence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed is averaging 625 km/s with sustained periods of southward IMF Bz. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with isolated active periods for day one (08 April) due to coronal hole effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for day two (09 April). Predominately quiet conditions are expected for day three (10 April).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Apr 076
  Predicted   08 Apr-10 Apr  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        07 Apr 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr  022/046
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Apr  015/028
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr  012/015-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%05%05%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%10%05%
Minor storm15%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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