Viewing archive of Monday, 1 March 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Mar 01 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 060 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No significant flares were
detected during the forecast period. New Regions 1052 (S16W25) and
1053 (S23W33) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low due to the return of old Region 1045 (N24, L242) and two
newly numbered regions 1052 and 1053.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet. An increase to unsettled
levels was observed between 1500Z and 1800Z. The increase was in
response to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (02 March) due to the
coronal hole mentioned above. Activity is expected to be at quiet
levels on days two and three (03 - 04 March) as the coronal hole
effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 078 Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 084/084/084 90 Day Mean 01 Mar 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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