Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 January 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jan 06 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1039 has rotated
off the disk. A B5 x-ray event was observed at 06/1953Z from a new
region that is just rotating onto the visible disk on the NE limb.
Bright surging was also correlated with this event. Due to its
current limb position, no spots have yet been observed in the
region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Observations from the ACE
spacecraft show solar wind velocities averaging around 330 km/s with
fluctuations in the IMF Bz of +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (07-09
January).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 077 Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 077/078/078 90 Day Mean 06 Jan 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 001/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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