Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 December 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Dec 29 2241 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

:::::::::: Corrected Copy :::::::::: SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1039 (S28E06) remains a D-type sunspot group with a beta magnetic classification. However, the GONG imagery does show some new emerging flux today in the intermediate area of the sunspot group. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 1039.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (30 December - 01 January).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Dec 075
  Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan  078/079/079
  90 Day Mean        29 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Dec  001/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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