Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 December 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Dec 27 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Two B-class flares
occurred during the period from Region 1039 (S27E31); the largest
was a B7.6 at 1139Z. Region 1039 has grown during the past 24 hours
and is currently a 7-spot Dso-beta group, with an area of
approximately 100 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for an isolated C-class event from
Region 1039.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days, with a slight chance
for an isolated unsettled period on day three (28-30 December).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Dec 077 Predicted 28 Dec-30 Dec 078/079/080 90 Day Mean 27 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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