Viewing archive of Friday, 13 November 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Nov 13 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been very low for the past 24 hours.
Region 1030 (N23W105) rotated off the visible disk. No flares were
observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low to low for the next 3 days (14-16 November) due to old
Region 1029 rotating back on the visible disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next two days (14-15
November). Day three (16 November) is expected to be mostly quiet
with a slight chance of an unsettled period due to a weak coronal
hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 074 Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 074/075/075 90 Day Mean 13 Nov 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 001/001 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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