Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 September 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Sep 20 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
and the solar disk continues to be void of sunspots. Solar x-ray
images and Stereo B EUVI continue to indicate an active region just
on or behind the east limb although so far there have not been any
reports of the group in ground-based H-alpha imagery.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. Background levels are expected to increase gradually as the new
region rotates onto the solar disk. There is a slight chance for
isolated B-class events during the next three days (21-23
September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (21-23 September).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Sep 071 Predicted 21 Sep-23 Sep 073/075/077 90 Day Mean 20 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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