Viewing archive of Monday, 13 July 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jul 13 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. Field
activity increased to unsettled levels after 13/1200Z. ACE solar
wind data indicated a coronal hole high-speed stream commenced
around 13/1200Z. Velocities gradually increased after 13/1200Z and
reached a peak of 505 km/sec at 13/2029Z. Intermittent periods of
southward IMF Bz occurred beginning around mid-period (minimum -9 nt
at 13/1309Z).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (14 July).
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels for the balance of
the period (15 - 16 July).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jul 067 Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 13 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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