Viewing archive of Monday, 29 June 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jun 29 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.
Unsettled to active levels occurred until 29/0600Z, followed by
mostly quiet conditions. ACE solar wind observations indicated Earth
remained under the influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream.
Solar wind velocities gradually increased until around 29/1500Z
(peak 575 km/sec at 29/1501Z), then remained elevated for the rest
of the period. A period of sustained southward IMF Bz occurred until
around 29/0200Z (minimum -9 nT at 29/2102Z).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (30 June).
Field activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels during
days 2 - 3 (01 - 02 July) as the high-speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jun 069 Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 29 Jun 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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