Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 May 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 May 16 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1017 (N18W09) was
quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet for the forecast period (17-19
May).
III. Event Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 074 Predicted 17 May-19 May 075/075/074 90 Day Mean 16 May 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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