Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 May 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 May 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1017 (N18E17)
remains a Bxo beta spot group. This region was relatively quiet,
however, it has increased slightly in sunspot count.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be predominately quiet for the next three days (15 - 17
May).
III. Event Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 074 Predicted 15 May-17 May 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 14 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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