Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 May 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 May 09 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was very low. A slow CME on the
northeast limb was first observed by SOHO C2 coronagraph at 0150Z.
Two class B1 flares were observed at 8/2127Z and 9/0133Z. These
flares were associated with activity on the northeast limb. No spots
were observed on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance of C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. An isolated period of
unsettled conditions was observed between 9/0900 and 1200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet with isolated periods of
unsettled activity. No increase in geomagnetic activity is expected
from the CME mentioned in Part 1A.
III. Event Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 May 072 Predicted 10 May-12 May 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 09 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 012/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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