Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 April 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Apr 16 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
the past 24 hours. The solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions.
Observations from the ACE spacecraft reflect the influence of the
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind velocities
have increased from around 300 km/s to 430 km/s through the 24 hour
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active
conditions for 17 April. Predominantly quiet levels are expected
for 18-19 April.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Apr 070 Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 16 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 007/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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