Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 April 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Apr 11 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. The solar disk continues to be void of sunspots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled, with an
isolated active period from 0000-0300Z. Solar wind velocity remained
elevated during the past 24 hours, ranging between 500-560 km/s. The
solar wind signatures are consistent with the continuation of a high
speed stream from a coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet with a chance for unsettled levels and a
slight chance for an isolated active period on the first day (12
April) due to the continued presence of elevated solar wind
velocities. Activity levels are expected to be quiet for the second
and third days (13-14 April).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Apr 069 Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 11 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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